Orange County Real Estate Market Update

by Christopher Phipps

What's happening with Orange County home prices?

Median home price: $1,230,000
Overall home sales prices are up 3%.
75% of all homes currently listed are priced above $1 million.
34% of active listings are priced above $2 million.

How active is the Orange County housing market?

Sales volume is essentially flat compared to last week.
Active inventory has increased to 5,029 homes.
Average Days on Market: 102 days, indicating buyers have more negotiating power.

Where are mortgage interest rates today?

30-year fixed: 6.66% (up 0.08% from last week)
15-year fixed: 6.04% (up 0.08%)
Average monthly payment on a median-priced home: $5,030
California leads the nation in Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, with 31% of new home loans using an ARM.

Why aren't more homeowners selling?

Most homeowners are sitting on historically low mortgage rates:

88.5% have rates below 6%
78.7% have rates below 5%
59.4% have rates below 4%
22.6% have rates below 3%

These "lock-in" rates continue to limit housing inventory.

What are the current conforming loan limits?

Los Angeles, Orange & San Diego Counties: $766,550
Riverside & San Bernardino Counties: $644,000

What's an interesting loan program available today?

A new financing option currently available offers:

40-year fixed mortgage
Interest-only payments for the first 10 years
Current rate: 6.625%
One-point origination fee

How do today's mortgage rates compare historically?

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates:

Since 1971: 7.8%
2010s: 4.1%
2000s: 6.9%
1990s: 8.1%
1980s: 12.7%

How does Orange County compare with other Southern California counties?

County	Median Home Price
Orange County	$1,230,000
Los Angeles	$882,875
San Diego	$872,000
Ventura	$859,500
Riverside	$592,000
San Bernardino	$530,000

Southern California median home price: $812,000
U.S. median home price: $365,000

Are first-time buyers getting older?

Yes.

Median age of first-time buyers:

1991: 28
2024: 38

Median age of repeat buyers:

1991: 42
2024: 61

Affordability continues to delay homeownership.

What do industry statistics tell us?

According to the National Association of REALTORS®:

81% of agents believe staging increases a home's value by 1% to 5%.
The top 1% of agents complete 17% of all transactions.
The top 50% of agents complete 91% of all transactions.

Did you know?

California homeowners stay in their homes an average of 11.2 years, the third longest in the nation.
30% of all homes currently for sale in the U.S. are located in Texas and Florida.
Only 17% of California households can afford the state's median-priced home.

What challenges is California facing?

Several trends are worth watching:

California homeowners lost an average of $33,000 in equity during 2025.
Home prices declined in 52% of Orange County ZIP codes.
California contains 15 of the 25 most expensive cities in America.
70% of the nation's highest-priced ZIP codes are in California.
One in five California households spends 50% or more of its income on housing.
Average rent: $2.96 per square foot, compared to the national average of $1.91.

Commercial real estate also remains under pressure:

20% of Southern California office space is vacant.
Los Angeles: 51 million square feet vacant.
Orange County: 18 million square feet vacant.

What's the forecast for 2026?

Redfin projects:

Approximately 3% growth in home sales during 2026.

What other California trends stand out?

California is home to 6 of the nation's hottest housing markets.
Home flippers account for 3.3% of all purchases.
National affordability has fallen from 59% to 50%.
40% of California homeowners have considered moving out of state.
9% are considering relocating elsewhere within California.

More interesting housing facts

U.S. homeownership rate: 65.5%
California homeownership rate: 54.8% (third lowest nationally)
Only 22.8% of California homes are owned free and clear.
Nationally, 37% of homeowners have no mortgage.
Of those with mortgages, 25% have at least 50% equity.
More than 67 million U.S. homeowners are over age 55.
If California were a country, it would have the world's fifth-largest economy.

How many homes sell each year in Orange County?

Year	Homes Sold
2025	21,397
2024	33,111
2023	29,000
2022	33,111
2021	38,530
2020	34,900
2019	34,000
2018	35,100
2017	38,400
2016	37,900
2003	53,900

California contains:

Over 14 million residential properties.
Approximately 7.5 million single-family homes.

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