What to Know for the Week of August 18, 2025 - Inflation Data & Family

Hello OC Freinds!

Last week brought a bit of a mixed bag when it came to inflation data. Consumer inflation was moderate, but wholesale inflation surprised to the upside—and that’s concerning since wholesale costs often filter down into consumer prices a couple of months later.

This puts the Federal Reserve in a tough position. They’re weighing their dual mandate: support the labor market by cutting rates or keep rates steady to keep inflation in check. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its policy decisions certainly influence them.

For now, the economic calendar looks fairly quiet. The main event to watch will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Friday. Don’t expect much rate relief this week—if you’re currently in escrow, locking your rate for protection is still the safer play.

Consumer Inflation Update

• Overall CPI: Up 0.2% in July, with year-over-year inflation at 2.7% (same as June).

• Energy Costs: Down 1.1%, and gasoline down 2.2%, which helped keep the headline number in check.

• Core Inflation: Rose 0.3% in July, bringing the annual figure to 3.1%—a notch higher than both June’s 2.9% and economists’ expectations.

• Drivers of Core Inflation: Housing costs were the biggest contributor, alongside higher airline fares, used vehicles, and medical services.

The silver lining? Tariffs, which many feared would drive costs up sharply, had a smaller impact than expected.

What’s Coming This Week

• Monday: Builder Confidence

• Tuesday: Housing Starts & Construction Data

• Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes

• Thursday: Existing Home Sales & Jobless Claims

Plenty of housing data is on deck, which could offer insight into the fall market.

Personal Note

On the home front, it’s been a milestone summer for our family. My daughter turned 21, and we celebrated with a big party before she heads into her senior year at Chapman University. She’s majoring in Psychology, minoring in the Honors Program, and will be tackling her capstone project this spring. Needless to say, we’re very proud!

Sasha and I also enjoyed plenty of music and fun this summer. We made our way through the OC Fair (yes, I had my share of fair food) and caught concerts from Blues Traveler, Gin Blossoms, and Spin Doctors. Next up on our calendar is Spoon—keeping the summer soundtrack going strong.

Here’s to the week ahead, and as always, I’ll keep an eye on the markets for you.

Chris